Abstract EANA2025-146

Could intelligent life exist elsewhere in the universe? If so, how many communicative civilizations could we expect to exist in our Galaxy? In attempting to answer this question, the famous Drake Equation [1] has captured the public imagination ever since its conception and, more than six decades later, maintains a steady media interest [e.g. 2]. For these reasons, it is a fitting tool both for investigating public conceptions of its factors and for communicating scientific knowledge about Earth’s uniqueness. That is the basis of the outreach aspect of the interdisciplinary 4EU+ project DRAKE (‘Uncertain Worlds: Rethinking the Drake Equation and Earth’s Uniqueness’) [3].

At a time when many call for finding a “Planet B” to settle, it is increasingly important to show that none such might exist and that planetary habitability alone is an extremely complex question (not speaking of the even more poorly constrained issues of complex life, intelligence and technology). How do our assumptions from different disciplines and experiences shape our understanding of this question? In addition, does the number of factors included in a given formulation of the Drake Equation systematically influence the resulting probability estimates? By using three versions of the equation in our survey [3], including an expanded one with additional parameters regarding planetary habitability and evolution of life, we aim to show the subjective element of this estimate and build a bridge towards public understanding that habitability is shaped by many factors interconnected in complex feedbacks [4].

By inviting people from diverse backgrounds (students, scientists, the general public) to engage with different versions of the equation, DRAKE shows our preconceptions and opens up conversations about factors that influence whether life, especially intelligent life, can arise on a planet. Besides being disseminated in scientific journals, results from the survey will serve to reveal public expectations and uncertainties in the (original, abbreviated and expanded) equation parameters, and these in turn will enable us to continue the dialogue and tailor specific communications - for popular media, science festivals, museums, classrooms etc. - regarding Earth’s history, planetary habitability, emergence of life, influence of our civilization on Earth’s climate and more. In our contribution, we will present initial findings on how the number of factors in different versions of the Drake Equation influences participants’ final estimations, along with other insights relevant to science communication. Based on these results, we will offer an in-progress communication toolkit designed to support public engagement with astrobiological and philosophical questions across Europe and beyond. This way, the DRAKE initiative not only rethinks the iconic scientific equation; it hopes to reawaken our sense of wonder about the universe and our place within it.

 

[1] Drake, F.M. (1965) Curr. Asp. Exobiol., ed. G. Mamikunian & M.H. Briggs, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 323–345.

[2] Williams, M. (2024) Universe Today. https://www.universetoday.com/articles/new-study-examines-cosmic-expansion-leading-to-a-new-drake-equation-1

[3] Toman, J. (2025) EANA 2025 abstract.

[4] Kereszturi, A., & Noack, L. (2016) Orig. Life Evol. Biosph., 46(4), 473–486.

[5] Cockell, C.S. et al. (2024) Nat. Astron., 8(1), 30–38.